**Case Study**

Ffynone House is a Private Secondary School located in Swansea, Wales. They have contacted Buxton Analytics to create an analysis report on students’ Welsh scores from 2014-2021. As class sizes vary the number of observations for each year also varies. Ffynone House has collected a large amount of data on a number of students’ attributes over the course of their time at the school. This data along with the grades each student received for their Welsh tests at three different test points.

**Questions**

1. Using the Glossary table within the provided excel file determine the type of

data used by each variable: Time, Discrete Numerical, Continuous Numerical,

Ordinal Categorical, Binary, Nominal Categorical

2. Using appropriate measures of descriptive analytics analyze the numerical and categorical variables comparing them in the graphical or tabular format against G1, G2, and G3.

3. Complete a multiple regression with G3 as the dependent variable with all

relevant variables as independent variables.

a. Undertake a correlation to determine which variables are correlated with each other.

i. Which variables are highly correlated with G3?

ii. Are there any independent variables that are highly correlated

with each other?

b. Convert categorical variables to dummy variables if you are including

them in the analysis

c. Undertake the multiple regression

d. Determine from the multiple regression which variables are insignificant

e. Rerun the regression with the insignificant variables removed

f. Provide an interpretation of the final regression model remember to

discuss any issues of multicollinearity.

4. You are expected to create and compare two forecasting methods with G3 as the dependent variable.

a. In order to successfully achieve this you will need to average the grades

for all students in each year group before undertaking your forecast.

b. Choose from the following 4 forecasting methods and remember to make

sure your models are appropriately adjusted for trends and seasonality

where required.

i. Method 1 – Naïve Forecast

ii. Method 2 – Moving Averages Forecast

iii. Method 3 – Exponential Smoothing Forecast

iv. Method 4 – Regression based Forecast

c. The average accuracy measures for each model also need to be

calculated.

5. After completing a thorough analysis of the Welsh scores the teachers at

Ffynone House would like to know:

a. What four variables have the most impact on student Welsh Scores

(G3)? Please explain your answer in reference to the above questions.

b. Based on the correlation, do the same factors that impact G3 also

appear to influence G1 and G2?

c. What forecasting method best predicts the final grade across the three years?

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