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Cost-Based Risk Analysis of Research & Development Project in India

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Abstract- Cost estimators have to face the challenge of determining risks and uncertainties in a R&D project at early design stage. Cost estimators have to identify, assess and analyze the potential threats to the project. As a project moves from preliminary design phase and the project matures, cost estimation should keep the estimate up to date with definition changes and have a full cost estimating risk assessment to defend the estimate. The main objective of this study is to propose a cost estimation model with special emphasis on the cost-risk estimation that complies with the research projects undertaken by DRDO, India. Thus, cost estimation of the critical technology at the early design stage in research projects has always been a difficult task as there is little knowledge about the existing resources, development and operational features. For decades researchers have been focusing on developing efficient cost estimation methods. Yet their scarce access to cost information and real-time development scenario becomes a challenge for cost-risk estimation. The methodology was developed after studying the cost estimation methodology of defence research projects of India and other foreign nations. The article intends to provide an efficient.

Cost Estimation of research projects has been a focal point in sanctioning of any R&D Project and a key agenda for managerial policies and business decisions. Cost estimation has a direct bearing on the time, budget and performance of the organization. Various methods for various kinds of projects have been undertaken at DRDO for cost estimation. Each research project is unique and every project requires the development of new technologies, resources, and services. A project consists of numerous activities and each activity consuming resources that incur the cost. The efforts of in-house development of defence equipment, for which cost estimation for development must be the part of the proposal, however as far as the development of critical technologies for national defence are concerned, the cost is not the important criteria for deciding for development. However, it does play an important role in other factors like time duration for complete development of a system is largely affected, which later on results in the recalculation of the project cost. The cost estimation methodology defined in this paper will intellectualize the program manager with the expected cost risk in the project.

    

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